Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -3000 DETM +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +23 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -15.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -12.5 (+10.5) | 150.6 (+6.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -13.9 (+9.1) | 150.0 (+7.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -11.0 (+12.0) | 147.0 (+10.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -11.7 (+11.3) | 146.2 (+10.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | PFW 83 – 76 DETM |
| Dec 14, 2025 | PFW 81 – 77 DETM |
| Dec 5, 2024 | DETM 79 – 78 PFW |
| Feb 17, 2024 | PFW 83 – 69 DETM |
| Dec 31, 2023 | PFW 91 – 56 DETM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 4-16 |
| Home | 12-2 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-10 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#129) | -10.0 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#129) | -1.05 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#112) | -1.84 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#118) | 0.464 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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