Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -1100 DETM +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +35 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -22.7 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -18.4 (+16.6) | 142.6 (+4.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -15.1 (+19.9) | 142.9 (+4.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -15.6 (+19.4) | 141.0 (+6.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -18.7 (+16.3) | 138.4 (+8.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | PFW 83 – 76 DETM |
| Dec 14, 2025 | PFW 81 – 77 DETM |
| Jan 12, 2025 | PFW 90 – 67 DETM |
| Dec 5, 2024 | DETM 79 – 78 PFW |
| Feb 17, 2024 | PFW 83 – 69 DETM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 1-31 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 1-19 |
| Home | 11-5 | 1-11 |
| Away | 10-8 | 0-20 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.3 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#99) | -13.4 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#51) | -3.92 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#56) | -5.32 (#361) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#87) | 0.381 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 25.8% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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