Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -440 DETM +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +4 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -7.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -4.8 (-0.8) | 153.0 (+5.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -7.2 (-3.2) | 152.2 (+5.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -4.5 (-0.5) | 149.9 (+8.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -4.8 (-0.8) | 151.6 (+6.4) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | PFW 83 – 76 DETM |
| Jan 12, 2025 | PFW 90 – 67 DETM |
| Dec 5, 2024 | DETM 79 – 78 PFW |
| Feb 17, 2024 | PFW 83 – 69 DETM |
| Dec 31, 2023 | PFW 91 – 56 DETM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-11 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#244) | -8.1 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#204) | -1.25 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#212) | -1.89 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#199) | 0.450 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 28.9 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.8% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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