Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | DETM +124 PFW -148 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DETM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +7 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | DETM -0.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -0.8 (-6.2) | 150.1 (+8.9) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -0.3 (-6.7) | 149.8 (+9.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -0.2 (-6.8) | 152.2 (+6.8) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -0.3 (-6.7) | 152.5 (+6.5) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2025 | PFW 81 – 77 DETM |
| Jan 12, 2025 | PFW 90 – 67 DETM |
| Dec 5, 2024 | DETM 79 – 78 PFW |
| Feb 17, 2024 | PFW 83 – 69 DETM |
| Dec 31, 2023 | PFW 91 – 56 DETM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DETM | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-9 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#278) | -4.2 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#255) | 0.25 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#259) | -0.25 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#242) | 0.511 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DETM | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 28.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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