Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | DETM +320 PFW -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DETM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +14 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -12.4 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -11.4 (-2.6) | 148.6 (+3.4) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -10.2 (-3.8) | 147.1 (+4.9) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -11.1 (-2.9) | 146.7 (+5.3) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -10.1 (-3.9) | 148.8 (+3.2) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | PFW 83 – 76 DETM |
| Dec 14, 2025 | PFW 81 – 77 DETM |
| Jan 12, 2025 | PFW 90 – 67 DETM |
| Dec 5, 2024 | DETM 79 – 78 PFW |
| Dec 31, 2023 | PFW 91 – 56 DETM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DETM | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1-31 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 11-9 |
| Home | 1-11 | 11-5 |
| Away | 0-20 | 10-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 78.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -15.4 (#354) | 0.4 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.04 (#362) | -0.36 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.73 (#361) | -0.30 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#353) | 0.467 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DETM | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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