Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MONM +240 COFC -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +11 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -5.9 (+16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -6.5 (+17.5) | 146.9 (+10.1) | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -5.9 (+16.9) | 148.2 (+8.8) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -6.9 (+17.9) | 151.7 (+5.3) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -6.5 (+17.5) | 149.7 (+7.3) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | COFC 74 – 63 MONM |
| Mar 10, 2025 | COFC 79 – 78 MONM |
| Mar 10, 2024 | COFC 83 – 59 MONM |
| Jan 13, 2024 | COFC 94 – 83 MONM |
| Jan 20, 2023 | COFC 69 – 55 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-14 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#294) | 2.3 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#322) | 1.56 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#310) | 1.59 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#321) | 0.590 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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