Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | COFC -500 MONM +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +24 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -5.5 (+18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -5.4 (+18.6) | 148.2 (-6.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -7.7 (+16.3) | 148.4 (-6.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -4.6 (+19.4) | 149.1 (-7.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -5.1 (+18.9) | 149.2 (-7.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | COFC 74 – 63 MONM |
| Mar 10, 2025 | COFC 79 – 78 MONM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MONM 84 – 73 COFC |
| Jan 13, 2024 | COFC 94 – 83 MONM |
| Jan 20, 2023 | COFC 69 – 55 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 10-2 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#106) | -1.1 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#83) | 0.14 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#94) | 0.13 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#65) | 0.519 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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