Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | COLG -155 BU +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +37 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | COLG -3.3 (+33.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -1.2 (+35.8) | 127.5 (+9.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -2.0 (+35.0) | 128.0 (+9.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -2.1 (+34.9) | 127.4 (+9.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -1.6 (+35.4) | 127.1 (+9.9) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2026 | BU 85 – 58 COLG |
| Jan 24, 2026 | COLG 80 – 79 BU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BU 93 – 91 COLG |
| Feb 8, 2024 | COLG 74 – 64 BU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | COLG 75 – 59 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLG | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-13 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#280) | -5.8 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#291) | -1.01 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#288) | -1.32 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#309) | 0.442 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLG | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 13.7% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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