Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -750 GT +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +22 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -12.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -11.3 (+10.7) | 154.1 (+9.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -11.3 (+10.7) | 152.9 (+11.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -10.9 (+11.1) | 151.5 (+12.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -12.0 (+10.0) | 152.7 (+11.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-6 | 14-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#45) | 3.1 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#51) | -0.44 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#51) | -0.40 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#49) | 0.463 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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