Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | CAL -300 VT +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +3 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | CAL -8.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -6.3 (-9.3) | 141.3 (-2.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -5.9 (-8.9) | 146.4 (-7.4) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -6.2 (-9.2) | 146.6 (-7.6) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -6.7 (-9.7) | 143.9 (-4.9) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | VT 78 – 75 CAL |
| Mar 11, 2025 | CAL 82 – 73 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-9 |
| Away | 2-11 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#109) | -0.6 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#124) | -0.73 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#122) | -0.98 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#135) | 0.472 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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