The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
Atlantic Coast Conference · Haas Pavilion · January 11, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread CAL -6.5 Away covered
O/U 144.5 Under
Money CAL -300 / VT +250
Model Predictions
Spread Total CAL win
Actual VT +3 139 Lost
Massey CAL -8.0 (-11.0)
Massey Totals 149.5 (-10.5)
Bradley-Terry 88%
Weighted B-T 93%
Efficiency Plus ML CAL -6.3 (-9.3) 141.3 (-2.3) 72%
Baseline Tuned ML CAL -5.9 (-8.9) 146.4 (-7.4) 75%
Baseline ML CAL -6.2 (-9.2) 146.6 (-7.6) 75%
Baseline Plus ML CAL -6.7 (-9.7) 143.9 (-4.9) 75%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 10, 2026 VT 7875 CAL
Mar 11, 2025 CAL 8273 VT

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CAL VT
Overall 14-19 13-19
Conference 6-14 8-12
Home 11-6 8-9
Away 2-11 5-5
Neutral 1-2 0-5
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 75.6 69.2
Avg Pts Against 76.8 73.2
Massey 3.4 (#109) -0.6 (#169)
Bradley-Terry 0.54 (#124) -0.73 (#242)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.70 (#122) -0.98 (#239)
RPI 0.519 (#135) 0.472 (#220)
Shooting & Four Factors CAL VT
FG% 45.2% 44.1%
3PT% 35.7% 34.7%
REB / G 36.6 33.2
OREB / G 12.6 10.7
AST / TO 0.80 1.00
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.9% 51.0%
TOV% 18.3% 20.4%
ORB% 36.3% 33.1%
FT Rate 31.8% 22.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.3% 53.5%
Opp TOV% 16.6% 18.2%
DRB% 70.6% 70.8%
Opp FT Rate 24.2% 24.7%

Game Analysis

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