Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | VT +165 CAL -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +9 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | CAL -2.6 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -1.5 (-7.5) | 144.5 (+10.5) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -0.7 (-8.3) | 144.7 (+10.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -1.7 (-7.3) | 146.8 (+8.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -1.4 (-7.6) | 145.9 (+9.1) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | VT 78 – 75 CAL |
| Jan 11, 2025 | VT 71 – 68 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-9 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#148) | 3.5 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#147) | 0.20 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#156) | 0.44 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#193) | 0.486 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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