Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | OHIO -7500 NIU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +38 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -19.2 (+18.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (+28.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -15.3 (+22.7) | 147.4 (+30.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -15.1 (+22.9) | 148.3 (+29.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -15.0 (+23.0) | 145.1 (+32.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -16.5 (+21.5) | 143.8 (+34.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | OHIO 74 – 66 NIU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OHIO 80 – 77 NIU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | OHIO 80 – 59 NIU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | OHIO 78 – 66 NIU |
| Feb 22, 2023 | OHIO 77 – 68 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 2-16 |
| Home | 12-3 | 5-10 |
| Away | 3-10 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#172) | -16.0 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#165) | -2.55 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#185) | -3.20 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#157) | 0.380 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 35.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 42.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 17.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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