Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | OHIO -700 NIU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -10.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -10.9 (-1.9) | 148.1 (-3.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -11.3 (-2.3) | 148.9 (-3.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -10.1 (-1.1) | 150.0 (-5.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -9.5 (-0.5) | 150.6 (-5.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | OHIO 74 – 66 NIU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OHIO 80 – 77 NIU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OHIO 108 – 70 NIU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | OHIO 80 – 59 NIU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | OHIO 78 – 66 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 5-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#132) | -4.5 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#153) | -0.85 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#153) | -0.86 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#146) | 0.471 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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