Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | OHIO -800 NIU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +3 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -11.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -9.1 (-6.1) | 145.6 (+11.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -8.4 (-5.4) | 143.6 (+13.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -8.8 (-5.8) | 144.2 (+12.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -9.0 (-6.0) | 146.0 (+11.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | OHIO 74 – 66 NIU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OHIO 108 – 70 NIU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | OHIO 80 – 59 NIU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | OHIO 78 – 66 NIU |
| Feb 22, 2023 | OHIO 77 – 68 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-6 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.0 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#211) | -10.6 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#183) | -1.33 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#189) | -2.05 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#165) | 0.440 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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