Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | NIU +320 OHIO -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +21 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | OHIO -4.6 (-16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -4.6 (-16.4) | 148.1 (-9.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -2.9 (-18.1) | 147.8 (-8.8) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -3.2 (-17.8) | 149.6 (-10.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -3.1 (-17.9) | 151.2 (-12.2) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | OHIO 74 – 66 NIU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OHIO 80 – 77 NIU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OHIO 108 – 70 NIU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | OHIO 78 – 66 NIU |
| Feb 22, 2023 | OHIO 77 – 68 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-9 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#305) | -0.3 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#275) | -0.35 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#284) | -0.33 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#265) | 0.471 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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