Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | OHIO -200 NIU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +12 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -6.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (-16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -5.4 (+6.6) | 152.9 (-8.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -4.1 (+7.9) | 151.1 (-7.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -3.8 (+8.2) | 150.6 (-6.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -4.2 (+7.8) | 153.9 (-9.9) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | OHIO 74 – 66 NIU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OHIO 80 – 77 NIU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OHIO 108 – 70 NIU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | OHIO 80 – 59 NIU |
| Feb 22, 2023 | OHIO 77 – 68 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#201) | -4.0 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#271) | 0.09 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#267) | 0.07 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#298) | 0.523 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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