Betting Lines
| Spread | PRIN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | HARV +175 PRIN -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HARV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRIN +4 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | PRIN -3.3 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (-12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRIN -4.6 (+0.6) | 139.8 (-7.8) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -3.2 (-0.8) | 139.3 (-7.3) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRIN -4.2 (+0.2) | 140.9 (-8.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRIN -3.8 (-0.2) | 140.6 (-8.6) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | HARV 58 – 56 PRIN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | HARV 87 – 80 PRIN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | PRIN 76 – 71 HARV |
| Feb 24, 2024 | PRIN 66 – 53 HARV |
| Jan 6, 2024 | PRIN 89 – 58 HARV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HARV | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-15 | 19-11 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 8-6 |
| Home | 7-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#274) | 1.1 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#268) | 0.92 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#273) | 0.73 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#262) | 0.548 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HARV | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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