Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | HARV -198 PRIN +164 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HARV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HARV +7 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | HARV -8.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (+35.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -5.4 (+1.6) | 133.8 (+33.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HARV -3.8 (+3.2) | 132.4 (+34.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HARV -5.1 (+1.9) | 132.2 (+34.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -5.5 (+1.5) | 132.7 (+34.3) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | HARV 58 – 56 PRIN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | PRIN 76 – 71 HARV |
| Jan 11, 2025 | PRIN 68 – 64 HARV |
| Feb 24, 2024 | PRIN 66 – 53 HARV |
| Jan 6, 2024 | PRIN 89 – 58 HARV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HARV | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-12 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 5-9 |
| Home | 8-4 | 8-4 |
| Away | 9-6 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#163) | -5.0 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#224) | -0.94 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#213) | -0.98 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#207) | 0.457 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HARV | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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