Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | USA -1800 ODU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ODU +8 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -21.7 (-29.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -17.0 (-25.0) | 133.0 (+1.0) | 89% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -14.5 (-22.5) | 136.4 (-2.4) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -15.8 (-23.8) | 131.6 (+2.4) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -17.6 (-25.6) | 132.6 (+1.4) | 89% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2023 | USA 61 – 59 ODU |
| Jan 27, 2023 | ODU 66 – 64 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-4 | 7-9 |
| Away | 8-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#84) | -11.8 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#112) | -1.48 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#91) | -1.60 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#130) | 0.425 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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