Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | STAN -425 UVA +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +23 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -7.4 (+15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.5 (+27.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -5.9 (+17.1) | 130.7 (+22.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -5.0 (+18.0) | 131.6 (+21.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -5.1 (+17.9) | 131.5 (+21.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -5.4 (+17.6) | 130.4 (+22.6) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | UVA 70 – 55 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 17-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#88) | 1.9 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#76) | 0.97 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#97) | 1.25 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#76) | 0.547 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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