Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | EMU +280 AKR -360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +24 | 186 | Lost |
| Massey | AKR -5.5 (-18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (+28.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -4.2 (-19.8) | 151.5 (+34.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -7.6 (-16.4) | 154.8 (+31.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -4.7 (-19.3) | 152.0 (+34.0) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -4.5 (-19.5) | 152.5 (+33.5) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | AKR 66 – 64 EMU |
| Dec 20, 2025 | AKR 93 – 72 EMU |
| Mar 6, 2024 | EMU 61 – 60 AKR |
| Jan 31, 2024 | AKR 77 – 46 EMU |
| Feb 15, 2023 | AKR 78 – 51 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 17-1 |
| Home | 9-5 | 16-0 |
| Away | 6-10 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#302) | 1.0 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#205) | 0.13 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#236) | 0.02 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#236) | 0.510 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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