Betting Lines
| Spread | ME -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | ME -225 UALB +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ME win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ME +21 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | ME -4.8 (+16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ME -3.5 (+17.5) | 141.7 (+11.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ME -2.7 (+18.3) | 142.0 (+11.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ME -2.5 (+18.5) | 142.8 (+10.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ME -2.3 (+18.7) | 142.0 (+11.0) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ME 70 – 59 UALB |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ME 52 – 49 UALB |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UALB 79 – 68 ME |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ME 74 – 71 UALB |
| Jan 25, 2024 | ME 81 – 73 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ME | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 8-11 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#238) | -5.0 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#221) | -0.64 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#221) | -0.71 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#223) | 0.469 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ME | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 28.2 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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