Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | BALL -240 BGSU +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +22 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -5.6 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -5.1 (+16.9) | 149.6 (+10.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -3.6 (+18.4) | 148.7 (+11.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -5.3 (+16.7) | 147.4 (+12.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -5.5 (+16.5) | 148.7 (+11.3) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | BGSU 77 – 52 BALL |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BGSU 61 – 52 BALL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | BGSU 80 – 70 BALL |
| Jan 31, 2024 | BGSU 81 – 72 BALL |
| Feb 11, 2023 | BALL 93 – 72 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-7 | 8-8 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#241) | -6.1 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#286) | -1.68 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#293) | -2.42 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#298) | 0.404 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 34.1% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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