Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | BALL -333 BGSU +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +21 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -10.1 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (+14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -7.7 (+13.3) | 147.8 (+17.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -9.0 (+12.0) | 149.5 (+15.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -8.7 (+12.3) | 150.2 (+14.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -9.0 (+12.0) | 151.0 (+14.0) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | BGSU 77 – 52 BALL |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BGSU 61 – 52 BALL |
| Jan 11, 2025 | BALL 91 – 69 BGSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | BGSU 80 – 70 BALL |
| Jan 31, 2024 | BGSU 81 – 72 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-2 | 7-9 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#148) | -5.5 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#120) | -1.15 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#129) | -1.39 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#139) | 0.442 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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