Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | BALL -125 BGSU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +9 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | BALL -2.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -0.8 (-9.8) | 145.4 (+7.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -1.6 (-10.6) | 146.0 (+7.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -1.5 (-10.5) | 147.6 (+5.4) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -1.0 (-10.0) | 147.5 (+5.5) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | BGSU 77 – 52 BALL |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BGSU 61 – 52 BALL |
| Jan 11, 2025 | BALL 91 – 69 BGSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | BGSU 80 – 70 BALL |
| Feb 11, 2023 | BALL 93 – 72 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-7 | 12-5 |
| Away | 6-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#251) | -2.8 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#254) | 0.13 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#258) | -0.14 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#280) | 0.486 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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