Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -380 HALL +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +6 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -12.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.3 (+51.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -10.1 (-4.1) | 136.4 (+39.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -9.6 (-3.6) | 133.8 (+42.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -10.0 (-4.0) | 133.6 (+42.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -10.4 (-4.4) | 133.3 (+42.7) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | HALL 87 – 80 PROV |
| Dec 19, 2025 | HALL 72 – 67 PROV |
| Jan 29, 2025 | PROV 69 – 67 HALL |
| Jan 24, 2024 | PROV 67 – 63 HALL |
| Jan 3, 2024 | HALL 61 – 57 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | HALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 2-18 |
| Home | 10-6 | 5-11 |
| Away | 2-9 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 61.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#81) | -1.5 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#100) | -0.62 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#84) | -0.76 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#80) | 0.465 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | HALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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