Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -115 HALL -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HALL +5 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | HALL -0.4 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.3 (-23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HALL -0.3 (-4.7) | 149.7 (-10.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -1.1 (-6.1) | 151.7 (-12.7) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -0.5 (-5.5) | 152.8 (-13.8) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -0.6 (-5.6) | 151.0 (-12.0) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | HALL 87 – 80 PROV |
| Jan 29, 2025 | PROV 69 – 67 HALL |
| Jan 11, 2025 | PROV 91 – 85 HALL |
| Jan 24, 2024 | PROV 67 – 63 HALL |
| Jan 3, 2024 | HALL 61 – 57 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | HALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.3 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#88) | 11.5 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#111) | 3.00 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#99) | 4.45 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#104) | 0.615 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | HALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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