Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | HALL +150 PROV -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +2 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -4.4 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -4.5 (+2.5) | 136.1 (-0.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -3.3 (+1.3) | 134.6 (+1.4) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -4.8 (+2.8) | 136.1 (-0.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -4.9 (+2.9) | 136.8 (-0.8) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | HALL 87 – 80 PROV |
| Dec 19, 2025 | HALL 72 – 67 PROV |
| Jan 11, 2025 | PROV 91 – 85 HALL |
| Jan 24, 2024 | PROV 67 – 63 HALL |
| Jan 3, 2024 | HALL 61 – 57 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HALL | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 6-14 |
| Home | 5-11 | 10-6 |
| Away | 0-11 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L7 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.6 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#186) | 6.2 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#239) | 0.61 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#223) | 1.13 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#248) | 0.528 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HALL | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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