Betting Lines
| Spread | HALL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | HALL -205 PROV +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HALL +7 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | HALL -4.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HALL -6.0 (+1.0) | 152.7 (+14.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HALL -4.3 (+2.7) | 149.2 (+17.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HALL -6.2 (+0.8) | 147.9 (+19.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HALL -5.9 (+1.1) | 149.0 (+18.0) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2025 | HALL 72 – 67 PROV |
| Jan 29, 2025 | PROV 69 – 67 HALL |
| Jan 11, 2025 | PROV 91 – 85 HALL |
| Jan 24, 2024 | PROV 67 – 63 HALL |
| Jan 3, 2024 | HALL 61 – 57 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HALL | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 85.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#51) | 8.8 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#54) | 0.85 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#54) | 1.52 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#59) | 0.507 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HALL | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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