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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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80–39 on winners spread MAE 9.1 119 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Xavier @ Butler	-4.6	146.4	31%	67–69	✗
Marist @ Saint Peter's	+1.4	127.4	57%	56–67	✓
Fairfield @ Rider	+6.8	130.7	76%	57–58	✓
Quinnipiac @ Niagara	-1.7	133.4	43%	73–79	✗
Siena @ Mount St. Mary's	-3.4	130.5	38%	72–65	✓
Iona @ Canisius	-11.3	145.8	16%	80–59	✓
VMI @ East Tennessee State	+9.5	139.3	83%	65–69	✓
Youngstown State @ Purdue Fort Wayne	-1.8	150.0	44%	81–72	✓
Robert Morris @ Cleveland State	+5.0	135.3	72%	55–57	✓
Akron @ Ohio	-0.3	145.8	49%	81–90	✗
Saint Louis @ Dayton	+5.0	140.3	70%	56–70	✓
New Mexico @ Air Force	-7.0	143.2	24%	77–89	✗
Northern Kentucky @ Wright State	+4.5	142.5	69%	65–83	✓
Fresno State @ Nevada	+12.6	135.3	88%	66–77	✓
West Virginia @ Texas	+6.0	151.6	72%	60–94	✓
Marquette @ Georgetown	-12.0	151.7	15%	89–75	✓
Providence @ St. John's	-2.5	154.9	38%	68–73	✗
NC State @ Boston College	-5.5	143.8	27%	92–62	✓
Colgate @ Bucknell	-6.6	141.7	23%	76–56	✓
Pittsburgh @ Florida State	-6.1	147.9	25%	83–75	✓
Penn State @ Maryland	+7.4	135.4	78%	68–74	✓
Kentucky @ Georgia	-3.6	143.7	37%	68–75	✗
St. Bonaventure @ Duquesne	+6.8	138.3	77%	54–56	✓
Kansas @ Oklahoma	-2.3	144.8	40%	78–55	✓
Boston University @ Lafayette	+3.2	128.6	62%	65–69	✓
Bryant @ UMBC	-0.4	153.4	50%	73–76	✗
South Carolina @ Ole Miss	+10.8	137.7	85%	64–61	✗
George Washington @ Saint Joseph's	+4.9	156.6	72%	69–81	✓
Long Island University @ Wagner	+11.6	133.8	86%	46–58	✓
Bellarmine @ Queens University	+4.9	142.6	70%	88–84	✗
Army @ Navy	+5.4	139.6	73%	53–70	✓
UConn @ Creighton	+2.3	145.3	58%	53–56	✓
Rutgers @ Illinois	+3.0	131.4	64%	60–69	✓
Holy Cross @ American University	+8.8	131.1	80%	74–66	✗
Indiana State @ Northern Iowa	-3.2	148.1	38%	80–62	✓
UIC @ Belmont	+10.0	144.6	85%	71–98	✓
Murray State @ Bradley	+12.1	141.9	87%	48–83	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Florida Atlantic	+12.0	143.0	87%	85–90	✓
Virginia Tech @ Notre Dame	-5.3	146.7	29%	93–87	✓
UAlbany @ Binghamton	+5.8	139.6	72%	66–80	✓
Pennsylvania @ Harvard	+1.1	141.2	58%	80–72	✗
Princeton @ Dartmouth	-7.1	145.4	25%	76–83	✗
Cornell @ Brown	-0.7	156.0	46%	66–80	✗
Rhode Island @ George Mason	+5.2	135.7	71%	67–75	✓
Massachusetts @ La Salle	+1.2	144.9	53%	72–86	✓
UNC Asheville @ Presbyterian	-7.4	137.3	22%	76–72	✓
Campbell @ Gardner-Webb	+7.4	129.7	78%	73–77	✓
Western Carolina @ Furman	+13.5	153.3	88%	59–93	✓
Bowling Green @ Ball State	+9.0	149.5	83%	72–93	✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Stonehill	+3.7	129.7	65%	51–62	✓
Marshall @ Georgia State	-9.7	146.0	18%	88–77	✓
James Madison @ Coastal Carolina	-8.8	149.2	21%	73–66	✓
Omaha @ North Dakota	+4.1	147.8	67%	73–76	✓
Denver @ North Dakota State	+5.5	147.5	75%	70–78	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Stony Brook	-0.4	135.7	48%	59–69	✗
William & Mary @ Elon	+1.3	139.2	56%	55–66	✓
Towson @ Drexel	-0.0	132.2	48%	66–73	✗
Hofstra @ Monmouth	-11.8	138.0	15%	86–57	✓
Stetson @ North Florida	-2.6	151.3	41%	81–92	✗
Southern Illinois @ Drake	+6.9	133.2	75%	59–82	✓
Alabama @ Auburn	-3.5	150.1	33%	77–69	✓
Clemson @ North Carolina	+5.6	146.6	72%	71–91	✓
Fordham @ Davidson	+1.7	141.4	57%	73–71	✗
The Citadel @ Samford	+11.5	148.8	87%	70–76	✓
Arkansas State @ Georgia Southern	+6.6	131.4	75%	53–68	✓
Oral Roberts @ Western Illinois	-14.0	152.8	15%	82–73	✓
Vanderbilt @ Florida	+8.0	139.0	78%	88–80	✗
Mercer @ Chattanooga	+4.5	141.9	69%	56–73	✓
Central Michigan @ Miami (OH)	+2.9	141.1	64%	66–60	✗
UL Monroe @ Southern Miss	+13.6	137.9	88%	67–76	✓
Baylor @ TCU	+2.5	148.4	60%	72–68	✗
UNLV @ San Diego State	+8.8	142.3	82%	71–82	✓
Alabama State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	+4.2	137.2	68%	74–71	✗
Howard @ Delaware State	-4.6	143.1	30%	86–85	✓
Coppin State @ South Carolina State	+0.7	164.0	51%	84–94	✓
Maine @ NJIT	-2.3	138.9	42%	50–65	✗
UTEP @ UTSA	-3.1	136.2	35%	77–66	✓
Middle Tennessee @ UAB	+8.1	151.7	80%	69–92	✓
Norfolk State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+1.2	143.2	56%	76–73	✗
Wisconsin @ Nebraska	-0.1	131.2	49%	63–73	✗
Loyola Chicago @ Richmond	+7.9	141.2	80%	71–74	✓
Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois	+5.6	147.7	74%	53–81	✓
Merrimack @ Saint Francis	+0.8	133.9	53%	75–68	✗
Charleston @ Hampton	-14.3	152.7	14%	83–70	✓
Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge	-0.2	123.4	48%	53–64	✗
Portland State @ Northern Arizona	+2.6	151.1	63%	88–87	✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Jacksonville	+0.8	133.6	52%	62–51	✗
Duke @ Virginia	+6.1	128.8	73%	62–69	✓
Jackson State @ Florida A&M	-2.7	134.2	36%	69–58	✓
Morgan State @ North Carolina Central	+5.4	140.6	73%	63–83	✓
Lamar @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+13.3	148.1	88%	52–61	✓
Nicholls @ SE Louisiana	+1.7	152.3	62%	88–77	✗
East Texas A&M @ Northwestern State	+11.1	144.1	85%	64–72	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Tennessee State	+2.6	149.0	65%	53–67	✓
Eastern Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville	+10.7	140.8	86%	84–73	✗
Little Rock @ UT Martin	+5.7	156.2	72%	61–84	✓
Austin Peay @ Central Arkansas	+1.4	147.2	59%	69–76	✓
Alcorn State @ Bethune-Cookman	-3.6	142.3	31%	76–74	✓
Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest	+11.7	147.4	87%	70–71	✓
McNeese @ LSU New Orleans	-1.6	144.6	37%	79–78	✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Winthrop	+4.3	140.6	68%	79–70	✗
Central Connecticut @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+3.7	146.7	67%	77–73	✗
Louisiana @ Troy	+0.4	144.8	50%	65–80	✓
Old Dominion @ Texas State	+0.5	130.0	50%	70–68	✗
Morehead State @ Southeast Missouri State	+2.6	143.3	62%	65–59	✗
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State	+9.6	139.3	84%	71–74	✓
Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word	+5.1	150.8	69%	84–78	✗
Texas Southern @ Grambling	+8.7	137.4	83%	46–65	✓
Radford @ Charleston Southern	-2.4	138.8	39%	90–71	✓
Missouri @ Tennessee	+11.1	144.3	85%	86–85	✗
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State	+5.1	133.5	70%	64–56	✗
Saint Mary's @ Portland	-10.7	137.6	16%	81–64	✓
Indiana @ Michigan	-0.5	145.8	48%	62–61	✓
USC @ Oregon State	-7.6	131.6	23%	58–61	✗
Charlotte @ North Texas	+6.8	122.2	76%	43–67	✓
Mississippi State @ Arkansas	+6.4	130.6	72%	70–64	✗
App State @ South Alabama	+4.0	129.8	68%	57–74	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Southern	+3.6	137.5	68%	65–79	✓
Eastern Washington @ Idaho	-4.8	152.6	28%	73–66	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.