Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | UTC -175 MER +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +17 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -6.8 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -4.1 (+12.9) | 141.8 (-12.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -7.1 (+9.9) | 139.3 (-10.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -4.5 (+12.5) | 141.9 (-12.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -3.9 (+13.1) | 142.4 (-13.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UTC 94 – 90 MER |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UTC 79 – 75 MER |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UTC 76 – 61 MER |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTC 93 – 84 MER |
| Jan 1, 2025 | MER 99 – 94 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-7 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#184) | -3.8 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#235) | -0.90 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#220) | -0.95 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#198) | 0.457 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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