Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | DRKE -250 SIU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DRKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +23 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | DRKE -7.1 (+15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -6.7 (+16.3) | 131.2 (+9.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -6.8 (+16.2) | 130.3 (+10.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -6.9 (+16.1) | 133.2 (+7.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -6.5 (+16.5) | 133.8 (+7.2) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | DRKE 67 – 63 SIU |
| Feb 19, 2026 | SIU 66 – 61 DRKE |
| Jan 15, 2026 | DRKE 76 – 73 SIU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | DRKE 70 – 53 SIU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | DRKE 75 – 65 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DRKE | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.4 | 61.7 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#87) | 2.7 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#70) | 1.01 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#70) | 0.77 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#58) | 0.564 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DRKE | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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