Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | USA -150 APP +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +17 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | USA -5.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -4.1 (+12.9) | 132.6 (-1.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -3.5 (+13.5) | 131.4 (-0.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -4.0 (+13.0) | 129.8 (+1.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -3.4 (+13.6) | 130.0 (+1.0) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | APP 65 – 57 USA |
| Jan 5, 2024 | APP 91 – 84 USA |
| Mar 2, 2023 | USA 68 – 61 APP |
| Feb 19, 2022 | APP 69 – 51 USA |
| Jan 7, 2022 | APP 72 – 64 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#144) | -0.3 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#226) | -0.25 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#212) | -0.11 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#201) | 0.491 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 14.3% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.