Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
| Money | USA -220 APP +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +8 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -10.7 (-18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -7.7 (-15.7) | 137.4 (-1.4) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -6.4 (-14.4) | 135.4 (+0.6) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -8.3 (-16.3) | 138.3 (-2.3) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -8.6 (-16.6) | 137.6 (-1.6) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | APP 65 – 57 USA |
| Jan 5, 2024 | APP 91 – 84 USA |
| Mar 2, 2023 | USA 68 – 61 APP |
| Feb 11, 2023 | USA 74 – 57 APP |
| Feb 19, 2022 | APP 69 – 51 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#107) | -2.3 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#122) | -0.29 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#118) | -0.25 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#81) | 0.492 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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