Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | USA +130 APP -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +7 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -3.3 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+34.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -2.5 (-4.5) | 140.5 (+34.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -3.5 (-3.5) | 139.5 (+35.5) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -2.1 (-4.9) | 137.5 (+37.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -2.9 (-4.1) | 138.5 (+36.5) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | APP 65 – 57 USA |
| Mar 2, 2023 | USA 68 – 61 APP |
| Feb 11, 2023 | USA 74 – 57 APP |
| Feb 19, 2022 | APP 69 – 51 USA |
| Jan 7, 2022 | APP 72 – 64 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 16-2 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-0 |
| Away | 5-9 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#208) | 5.6 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#161) | 1.23 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#172) | 1.31 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#216) | 0.555 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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