Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | APP -250 USA +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +8 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | APP -5.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.3 (-6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -3.6 (+4.4) | 132.3 (-10.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -3.9 (+4.1) | 128.6 (-6.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -4.6 (+3.4) | 126.8 (-4.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -2.7 (+5.3) | 129.8 (-7.8) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2024 | APP 91 – 84 USA |
| Mar 2, 2023 | USA 68 – 61 APP |
| Feb 11, 2023 | USA 74 – 57 APP |
| Feb 19, 2022 | APP 69 – 51 USA |
| Jan 7, 2022 | APP 72 – 64 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#192) | -3.7 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#176) | 0.27 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#193) | 0.15 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#176) | 0.509 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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