Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | USA -213 APP +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +7 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | USA -4.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -4.6 (+2.4) | 130.8 (-1.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -4.7 (+2.3) | 132.0 (-3.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -3.3 (+3.7) | 133.0 (-4.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -4.6 (+2.4) | 132.6 (-3.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | APP 65 – 57 USA |
| Jan 5, 2024 | APP 91 – 84 USA |
| Feb 11, 2023 | USA 74 – 57 APP |
| Feb 19, 2022 | APP 69 – 51 USA |
| Jan 7, 2022 | APP 72 – 64 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#112) | -0.4 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#177) | -0.27 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#161) | -0.21 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#177) | 0.493 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 14.5% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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