Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +18 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | USA -1.5 (+19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -0.3 (+18.3) | 130.6 (-10.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -0.2 (+17.8) | 128.2 (-8.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -0.4 (+18.4) | 129.2 (-9.2) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -0.6 (+18.6) | 130.5 (-10.5) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | APP 65 – 57 USA |
| Jan 5, 2024 | APP 91 – 84 USA |
| Mar 2, 2023 | USA 68 – 61 APP |
| Feb 11, 2023 | USA 74 – 57 APP |
| Jan 7, 2022 | APP 72 – 64 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-7 |
| Home | 11-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 65.7 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#182) | 3.5 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#143) | 0.64 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#149) | 0.84 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#115) | 0.546 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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