Betting Lines
| Spread | YSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | PFW +170 YSU -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YSU +9 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | YSU -2.3 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YSU -2.1 (-6.9) | 151.0 (+2.0) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YSU -1.9 (-7.1) | 150.2 (+2.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YSU -1.8 (-7.2) | 150.0 (+3.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YSU -2.5 (-6.5) | 151.8 (+1.2) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | YSU 90 – 61 PFW |
| Jan 8, 2026 | PFW 71 – 69 YSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | YSU 72 – 67 PFW |
| Feb 12, 2025 | YSU 93 – 71 PFW |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PFW 90 – 81 YSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#213) | 3.7 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#182) | 0.39 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#189) | 0.52 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#156) | 0.520 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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