Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | TENN -1000 MIZ +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +1 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | TENN -14.7 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -11.5 (-12.5) | 142.3 (+28.7) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -13.3 (-14.3) | 143.5 (+27.5) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -11.1 (-12.1) | 144.3 (+26.7) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -11.2 (-12.2) | 144.6 (+26.4) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | MIZ 73 – 69 TENN |
| Feb 6, 2025 | TENN 85 – 81 MIZ |
| Feb 21, 2024 | TENN 72 – 67 MIZ |
| Mar 10, 2023 | MIZ 79 – 71 TENN |
| Feb 23, 2022 | TENN 80 – 61 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 16-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.9 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 20.1 (#3) | 9.0 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#14) | 2.19 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.27 (#16) | 2.53 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#13) | 0.584 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.6% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 24.6% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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