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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–18 on winners spread MAE 7.6 61 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Iowa @ Purdue	+8.6	153.9	80%	73–87	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Florida International	+0.7	144.5	56%	62–66	✓
Rice @ Florida Atlantic	+12.9	150.3	88%	81–90	✓
Gardner-Webb @ Radford	+3.2	130.1	64%	61–48	✗
Stonehill @ Merrimack	-0.2	129.4	49%	43–56	✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Long Island University	-8.2	153.4	19%	80–79	✓
James Madison @ Georgia Southern	-5.5	139.1	29%	73–76	✗
Old Dominion @ Georgia State	-1.9	131.8	45%	63–60	✓
Marshall @ Coastal Carolina	-11.3	154.4	16%	92–74	✓
Kansas City @ Western Illinois	+2.4	137.5	63%	76–64	✗
Bellarmine @ Liberty	+14.8	132.2	88%	50–70	✓
Stetson @ Jacksonville	-0.5	137.6	50%	70–67	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Queens University	+2.0	150.1	59%	84–80	✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Florida	-1.6	149.1	43%	68–66	✓
UT Arlington @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+2.3	142.9	62%	64–58	✗
App State @ UL Monroe	-1.8	131.5	43%	52–45	✓
Morehead State @ Little Rock	-2.4	145.5	36%	68–72	✗
Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky	+0.2	142.5	51%	89–93	✓
UAB @ North Texas	+2.7	127.6	65%	79–82	✓
LSU New Orleans @ Nicholls	+10.3	151.5	87%	59–84	✓
Northwestern @ Ohio State	+4.4	137.4	67%	69–63	✗
Arkansas State @ Texas State	+6.6	129.0	73%	62–66	✓
Oral Roberts @ St. Thomas	-9.6	152.3	18%	95–88	✓
Omaha @ North Dakota State	+4.8	149.0	69%	58–84	✓
Denver @ North Dakota	+1.2	147.6	60%	63–86	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Lindenwood	-5.3	140.5	28%	63–58	✓
Oakland @ Green Bay	-7.6	143.2	20%	59–47	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Milwaukee	+1.6	156.3	64%	89–94	✓
Portland State @ Northern Colorado	+2.7	155.1	63%	79–88	✓
Sacramento State @ Northern Arizona	+0.6	138.1	52%	55–77	✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+12.6	161.1	88%	68–91	✓
SE Louisiana @ McNeese	-2.7	145.8	34%	66–69	✗
Lamar @ Incarnate Word	+5.0	138.0	69%	68–59	✗
Louisiana @ Southern Miss	+5.9	146.3	70%	71–82	✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Illinois	-2.8	147.1	34%	75–77	✗
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State	-4.6	143.6	28%	54–52	✓
Austin Peay @ North Alabama	+6.3	144.4	78%	57–70	✓
UCLA @ Oregon State	-13.9	128.4	14%	62–47	✓
San Francisco @ Gonzaga	+12.4	157.6	87%	81–99	✓
Charlotte @ UTEP	-1.4	129.4	44%	62–53	✓
Northwestern State @ East Texas A&M	-3.1	140.5	35%	88–82	✓
Tarleton State @ Southern Utah	+6.5	149.5	77%	62–72	✓
Pacific @ Portland	+5.0	159.6	72%	73–81	✓
South Alabama @ Troy	+3.0	137.3	65%	57–61	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee State	-0.6	156.5	48%	65–85	✗
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee Tech	+0.2	151.9	50%	69–84	✓
UC Davis @ UC Riverside	+1.2	145.6	60%	65–72	✓
Montana State @ Weber State	-2.5	132.1	40%	63–73	✗
Montana @ Idaho State	+0.1	137.7	50%	69–61	✗
Lipscomb @ Central Arkansas	-5.5	152.2	27%	93–81	✓
Saint Mary's @ Loyola Marymount	-6.8	133.1	26%	74–78	✗
Arizona State @ Stanford	+2.1	138.4	56%	69–65	✗
San Diego @ Santa Clara	+10.9	160.3	86%	75–80	✓
BYU @ Pepperdine	-4.8	153.9	28%	80–92	✗
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield	+3.2	130.0	60%	58–73	✓
Cal Poly @ UC Irvine	+14.4	133.3	88%	54–55	✓
Arizona @ California	-15.5	139.9	13%	85–62	✓
USC @ Oregon	+2.4	144.0	61%	60–78	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Long Beach State	+0.5	147.5	53%	75–72	✗
UC San Diego @ Hawai'i	+9.6	134.2	84%	62–69	✓
Kent State @ Buffalo	-4.8	149.9	28%	72–65	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.