Betting Lines
| Spread | TNTC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TNTC -110 USI +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +15 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | TNTC -0.7 (+14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USI -0.1 (+15.1) | 154.4 (-1.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USI -1.1 (+16.1) | 152.2 (+0.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNTC -0.2 (+14.8) | 151.9 (+1.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USI -0.2 (+15.2) | 154.2 (-1.2) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | TNTC 82 – 74 USI |
| Jan 16, 2026 | USI 71 – 54 TNTC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TNTC 78 – 65 USI |
| Jan 3, 2025 | TNTC 68 – 64 USI |
| Feb 2, 2024 | USI 74 – 71 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#297) | -4.6 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#295) | -0.85 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#297) | -1.06 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#294) | 0.461 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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