Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | GONZ -1400 SF +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +18 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -13.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (+21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -13.2 (+4.8) | 156.8 (+23.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -12.1 (+5.9) | 156.5 (+23.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -12.4 (+5.6) | 157.6 (+22.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -12.0 (+6.0) | 158.7 (+21.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | GONZ 80 – 59 SF |
| Jan 25, 2026 | GONZ 68 – 66 SF |
| Mar 11, 2025 | GONZ 85 – 76 SF |
| Mar 2, 2025 | GONZ 95 – 75 SF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | GONZ 88 – 77 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 7-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-2 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.2 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 14.5 (#16) | 4.2 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#8) | 0.56 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.78 (#5) | 0.74 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.644 (#4) | 0.504 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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