Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | WEB +180 MTST -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WEB +10 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -3.0 (+13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -3.0 (+13.0) | 132.4 (+3.6) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -3.4 (+13.4) | 129.6 (+6.4) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -2.5 (+12.5) | 132.1 (+3.9) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -2.8 (+12.8) | 133.0 (+3.0) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | WEB 82 – 79 MTST |
| Jan 25, 2026 | MTST 91 – 88 WEB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MTST 74 – 66 WEB |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MTST 80 – 71 WEB |
| Mar 11, 2024 | MTST 91 – 82 WEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WEB | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-4 | 12-1 |
| Away | 8-8 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#225) | 3.8 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#202) | 0.70 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#234) | 0.88 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#216) | 0.546 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WEB | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 20.2% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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