Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UCR -120 UCD +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +7 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -2.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -0.8 (+6.2) | 143.7 (-6.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -1.7 (+5.3) | 140.1 (-3.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -1.2 (+5.8) | 145.6 (-8.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -0.8 (+6.2) | 145.4 (-8.4) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UCD 78 – 73 UCR |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UCD 74 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UCD 75 – 74 UCR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UCR 60 – 58 UCD |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UCR 67 – 61 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 9-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#156) | 1.6 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#131) | 0.06 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#163) | 0.33 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#130) | 0.508 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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