Betting Lines
| Spread | UNA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UNA -200 APSU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNA +13 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | UNA -6.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -6.3 (+6.7) | 145.3 (-18.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNA -4.6 (+8.4) | 143.5 (-16.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -6.3 (+6.7) | 144.4 (-17.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -6.0 (+7.0) | 146.0 (-19.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | APSU 91 – 62 UNA |
| Mar 4, 2025 | UNA 90 – 64 APSU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNA 74 – 64 APSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UNA 88 – 84 APSU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | APSU 77 – 71 UNA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 3-15 |
| Home | 9-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 8-10 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 63.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#284) | -9.2 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#172) | -1.63 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#215) | -2.05 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#185) | 0.428 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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