Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ORE -213 USC +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +18 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -3.4 (+14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -2.9 (+15.1) | 143.1 (-5.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -3.4 (+14.6) | 142.5 (-4.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -2.4 (+15.6) | 144.0 (-6.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -2.5 (+15.5) | 144.3 (-6.3) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ORE 71 – 70 USC |
| Dec 3, 2025 | USC 82 – 77 ORE |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ORE 82 – 61 USC |
| Dec 5, 2024 | ORE 68 – 60 USC |
| Feb 2, 2024 | ORE 78 – 69 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#50) | 10.0 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#69) | 1.98 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#67) | 2.37 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#76) | 0.591 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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