Betting Lines
| Spread | WKU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | WKU -133 MTSU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WKU +4 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -0.2 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+42.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -0.2 (+4.2) | 140.8 (+41.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -0.8 (+4.8) | 140.6 (+41.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WKU -0.2 (+3.8) | 142.5 (+39.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -0.5 (+4.5) | 142.8 (+39.2) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | WKU 82 – 80 MTSU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | WKU 65 – 60 MTSU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MTSU 87 – 77 WKU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MTSU 71 – 57 WKU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | WKU 85 – 54 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WKU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#172) | 3.4 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#158) | 0.77 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#181) | 0.66 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#171) | 0.564 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WKU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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