Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | HAW -600 UCSD +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +7 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -12.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -10.6 (-3.6) | 135.2 (-4.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -9.6 (-2.6) | 134.3 (-3.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -9.6 (-2.6) | 134.2 (-3.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -10.2 (-3.2) | 133.9 (-2.9) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | HAW 72 – 67 UCSD |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UCSD 83 – 73 HAW |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UCSD 83 – 44 HAW |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UCSD 74 – 63 HAW |
| Feb 9, 2024 | HAW 94 – 86 UCSD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-5 | 4-10 |
| Away | 6-4 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.0 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#127) | -6.6 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#130) | -1.28 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#114) | -1.64 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#157) | 0.449 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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