Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -150 UAB +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +3 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -2.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (+30.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -2.4 (+0.6) | 131.6 (+29.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -3.3 (-0.3) | 123.1 (+37.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -2.7 (+0.3) | 127.6 (+33.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -2.4 (+0.6) | 131.5 (+29.5) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNT 62 – 58 UAB |
| Feb 1, 2026 | UAB 72 – 68 UNT |
| Mar 15, 2025 | UAB 66 – 56 UNT |
| Feb 4, 2025 | UAB 64 – 61 UNT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UNT 78 – 75 UAB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-7 | 29-10 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 17-2 |
| Away | 10-3 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.3 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#78) | 8.2 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#34) | 1.19 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#48) | 1.63 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#24) | 0.545 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 41.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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